The PropThink Recap: Finding Value in Biotech

  • Synergy’s equity financing, which wrapped up last Tuesday, put the company in a strong position for a partnership (or M&A) negotiation regarding plecanatide. The stock continued to demonstrate weakness following the pricing of the offering as investors moved on to stories with more catalysts upcoming. But we think they’ve missed a few events, and this weakness is a great entrance point for the long-term investor.
  • Zerenex’s patent estate is still a point of debate in biotech. Dr. Chambers’ opinion on the portfolio made us even more comfortable with the strength of Keryx’s IP, and since we first said that the bears have it wrong on February 4, Keryx has come back by 25%, not to mention the 200% rally in January.
  • There’s not enough evidence to suggest, in our view, that Exact Sciences’ Cologuard CRC test will see success commercially. EXAS is well off of its highs from January when many investors expected a “Cup and Handle” pattern to precipitate a major breakout. That never materialized, and shares are off 26%.
  • Next week is Aveo’s meeting with the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee to discuss the approvability of Tivozanib, Aveo’s treatment for advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma. Dr. Chaudhry expects a positive vote — here’s why.
  • PropThink subscribers who jumped on our alert Monday were able to short CPRX, a dubious firm in our view, from around $1.10 all the way to $0.85 — a 20% return.


  • Mr. King highlighted Tekmira’s cheap valuation as an initial reason to own the stock. He expects that as the company shifts investor perception to one of “development” instead of “technology platform,” the markets will give the company more credit as a pipeline story. TKMR ended the week flat after a brief 10% rally.
  • Mr. Patel nailed the breakout prediction in early March regarding ISIS. The stock closed out this week at $22.46, from $17 when PropThink noted the name. And taking another step back, Mr. Patel had it right at $14.50 when Kynamro received FDA approval in January. That’s 50% in three months.