BOOM! Shares of Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) climbed from $14 to $20 into Friday’s close after the FDA removed a clinical hold on the company’s Ebola therapeutic, essentially enabling its use in individuals infected with the Ebola virus. The Ebola outbreak in Africa has dominated headlines for the last two weeks, and TKMR is benefitting from sitting center-stage. In early July when the FDA put TKM-Ebola on clinical hold, we explained why the safety issues were addressable.
Investors who bought the dip with our column are up almost 100% in the month since.
Given our bullish stance on the RNAi company, owning the stock below $12 made sense for the longhaul.
Tekmira will report second quarter financial results next Wednesday, and investors (many of whom will have just bought the stock) will be listening closely for an update on TKM-Ebola and its possible use overseas. But while the Ebola headlines are sexy to traders, fundamental investors understand that Tekmira’s Ebola program is not central to the longterm value proposition, and the rally is as much headline hype as substance. Perhaps Warren Buffet’s famous, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy…” quote is apt as the TKMR Ebola trade plays out. Read much more about Tekmira, with commentary dating back to April of 2013, by clicking here.
Better yet, sign up for PropThink Premium for continued coverage of Tekmira and updates with our analysts’ proprietary buy/sell recommendations. We’ll be sending out our latest commentary and recommendation next week.
In the next 60 days, Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) will report top-line results from a key study of migalastat, a drug candidate for Fabry Disease that already failed one of its critical phase 3 studies, in 2012. Investors have reason to believe that this latest study, dubbed -012, has a real shot at success. Even so, we wouldn’t suggest going into this binary event without a hedge – a failure calls into question the company’s entire pharmacological chaperone technology platform. Read on for PropThink’s opinion on the forthcoming event, and an options strategy for those interested in being involved.
OncoGenex (OGXI) got some love following its second quarter earnings event on Thursday. Two weeks back, PropThink contributor David Phillips outlined what there was to like about the left-for-dead equity. The most impactful takeaway from OGXI’s earnings report, perhaps, was guidance for existing cash/equivalents to last through the third quarter of 2016, a significant increase from the company’s last guidance for early 2015, and a runway that gets the company past a number of value-driving events. The improvement stems from a $22 million July financing. Read the report to understand why Phillips believes OGXI is worth a look.
Before the bell on Thursday morning Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) hosted its second quarter conference call. Recall that the U.S. FDA in June delayed an approval decision for Orexigen’s weight-loss drug, Contrave, by 3 months to September 11. We put forth one thesis as to why the delay occurred, outlined here. On the conference call, a few of the unknowns in our thesis were answered. Mr. King explained what’s changed and highlighted key commentary from the call: “Takeaways from Orexigen’s Second Quarter Conference Call“
Alpha BioPharma Advisers, in partnership with PropThink recently published a massive, 150-page report, “An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis on Gilead (GILD)”. On Monday, we summarized key takeaways from the report for PropThink Premium members, explaining the bull thesis and why so many on the street (and healthcare pundits) are taking a myopic view of Sovaldi, Gilead’s blockbuster hepatitis C treatment. Keep reading…
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