PropThink’s Weekly Roundup

  • The event of the week? Phase III data for Zerenex, Keryx Biopharmaceutical’s phosphate binder, were released on Monday, with compelling results. PropThink has been covering KERX since last fall, and the stock was up 230% (from $2.92, our initiation price) at its peak this week.
  • Depomed (DEPO), for which our report went public on Tuesday, turned a quick 12% by the end of the week. Depomed’s treatment for menopausal hot flashes, Serada offers pure upside to the stock and has largely been ignored by investors after (debatably) disappointing trial results.
  • Hate them or love them – Yes you, Dendreon followers – immunotherapies are a compelling technology. Two developers, IMUC and NWBO, have vaccines in late-stage studies for the treatment of brain cancer, and both stocks are cheap. We’ll let you read the full report to find out why we particularly like IMUC.
  • In our opinion, Ampio’s pipeline isn’t going far – generic competition, questionable trial methods, and to top it all off, the company will need to execute a capital raise soon. Since our Premium Subscribers (sign up here for a trial run) heard about it on the 23rd, the stock has fallen almost 25%.
  • Canadian drug developer Transition Therapeutics (TTHI) has an Eli Lilly-licensed dual GLP-1 agonist in early clinical development. It’s a hot target, and no one’s paying attention to the economics of the partnership or molecule. Shares are cheap, so much so that if TT-401 pans out, an acquisition, in our eyes, makes a lot of sense.

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  • Our prediction that NAVB would run into the Lymphseek approval has begun to materialize. This week, two institutional investors took an equity position at favorable terms – favorable to other shareholders that is. No warrant coverage, quality pricing, and the sophistication of these investors helps to validate Lymphoseek’s viability; shares are up 12% since we first reported
  • Most in the biotech community expected Kynamro to receive approval. But more importantly, the approval validates antisense technology, which Isis Pharmaceuticals has built its platform around.
  • ENDP may soon be off the market – in a good way. Sources said that Valeant and Warner Chilcott are eyeing the company as an acquisition, and it makes sense given the tax benefits, takeover history, and synergies between the parties. PropThink has been on top of ENDP as a cheap specialty pharma buy since the stock was in the mid-$20 range at the end of last year. On the chatter, shares are back near $32 – a 20% gain from our coverage. We still think its cheap, and if a buyout actually materializes, the price could come in considerably higher – but that’s a story for next week.

A few of PropThink’s other recent winners:

Organovo (ONVO), from $2.10 to $6.00 in just over a month.

For MAPP Pharma (MAPP), a buyout generated a 60% return for shareholders.

CLSN, of course, climbed 112% into the Thermodox trial results.

Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP), up 188% since October.