PropThink’s Weekly Healthcare Wrap-Up

  • IMUC proved a successful trade in the short-term, climbing 34% since our report was published on the first of the month. In early trials, lead candidate ICT-107 demonstrated impressive efficacy in patients with glioblastoma multiforme, and at its relatively low valuation, is a cheap opportunity in the cancer space.
  • Numerous sources have pointed to the possible sale of Endo Health Solutions (ENDP), a specialty pharma company that PropThink has been following since late last year. Warner Chilcott and Valeant Pharma are rumored suitors, which makes perfect sense given that ENDP’s business would be highly accretive to earnings of either one. ENDP is up 15% since our first coverage, with significant upside from here if a deal emerges
  • Navidea’s pre-PDUFA run has begun to heat up. A noteworthy investor took a position in NAVB last week, which offered validation to the company’s lead candidate Lymphoseek and suggested increased institutional interest. Since PropThink opined on Lymphoseek, NAVB has gained 10%.

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  • Our readers will be well-aware of our interest in KERX (+200% since we our first report) and its phosphate binder Zerenex. Despite much speculation to the contrary, we don’t believe that Zerenex will face exclusivity issues, and Zerenex’s impressive anemia benefits suggest it will seize a significant portion of the phosphate binder market. Nevertheless, these concerns pressured the stock 13% lower by Friday’s close.
  • Since Jason Napodano sat down with the Zalicus’ management team to hash out the Z160 market opportunity, ZLCS has climbed 15%. Conservatively, the analgesic could do $500-750M annually if approved. Two ongoing Phase IIa trials will offer a good idea of the drug’s efficacy, with data due in the 4Q and early next year.
  • Affymax’s (AFFY) Omontys is a much-improved ESA (erythropoeitin stimulating agent) when compared to Amgen’s (AMGN) Epogen. Sales of the product, which was approved last March, came in lower than expected, and despite our long-term interest, Affy will remain under pressure in the near-term. AFFY closed the week down 8%.
  • ILMN has been a long-time appeal for Mr. Deryugin, and this week he highlighted the company’s 4Q12 results, digging into the core business. With the veil lifted on acquisition speculation, we see long-term potential in ILMN.
  • PropThink highlighted Biogen Idec when shares were in the trough twice in the last few months, which returned 14% and 11% in the short-term. Biogen is a compelling long-term story nevertheless, and the core business, especially with the expected addition of BG-12, make it a great holding.