PropThink’s Weekly Wrap-Up

  • A patent extension for Folotyn added five years to the drug’s market exclusivity and elicited a rally in Spectrum (SPPI) on Monday, but the news wasn’t enough to maintain those gains, and the stock closed out the week lower by 2.5%.
  • Last week, PropThink covered the merger of BioSante (BPAX) and ANI Pharmaceuticals and predicted that while the deal would be valuable for ANI, BPAX investors would be left with what we believe to be, less than before the deal was announced. Investors headed for the door this week, and BPAX ended below $1.40, down 23% since the merger was announced. The new entity, ANI Pharmaceuticals, may be worth revisiting if shares have dipped much lower once the dust settles, and once we’ve seen more details on the agreement.
  • Analysts recently took note of slipping Dificid prescription trends, and Optimer (OPTR) moved to combat the lagging sales growth by lowering hospital pricing. The new strategy, however, did little to assuage investors’ fears, and OPTR is off 30% since the spotlight stopped on this drug developer.
  • Shares of Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) seem to have found some safe-haven around $24.50 on Friday, following a modest decline when the healthcare cooperative GroupHealth began questioning Amprya’s clinical significance; Ampyra is ACOR’s lead product and has yet to produce the blockbuster results that some analysts expected.
  • Our article was a little late to the party, as Delcath Systems’ (DCTH) run-up this month lost momentum and declined into the end of this week ahead of an anticipated NDA acceptance by the FDA. Weight still rests on the decision, set for Sunday, which would grant CHEMOSAT Priority Review status, but could be delayed until the end of the month if the device receives a standard review.
  • We’ve been covering QCOR for some time now, and following its demise in mid-September we opined that the stock could rebound. Prescription trends gave the stock a boost this week, and it has netted a 15% return since the beginning of October. It looks like nephrotic syndrome is quickly becoming a major market for Acthar, evidenced by notes from the upcoming American Society of Nephrology meeting. Good read for this weekend; momentum expected to continue next week, particularly after October 15th when mutual fund tax loss season ends.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) revealed interesting results from the combined analysis of two prior Solanezumab trials, demonstrating that the drug may slow cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s patients. Shares strengthened as a result, and LLY finished the week 5% ahead.
  • After some intraweek losses, ELN managed to finish flat on Friday, but we’re not convinced that this biotech has a whole lot to offer investors. Tysabri’s new patient starts have been slowing, and Biogen Idec’s (BIIB) BG-12 is making a splash in the MS treatment segment; it could take share from Tysabri if approved.
  • Regardless of take-out possibilities, Illumina’s business prospects are improving, which could drive the stock higher. Analysts noted that EPS estimates may be conservative, and the company has a shot at an earnings beat in its third quarter report.
  • Investors will be familiar with the suspense surrounding Vascepa’s market exclusivity decision, which was delayed yet again on Wednesday. AMRN should decline with this overhang and probably won’t make material gains again until next month’s shot at an NCE status update.
  • AKRX received a warning letter from the FDA regarding its Pilocarpine HCl solution on Wednesday, weakening shares temporarily, while Amicus (FOLD) began moving ahead of Phase III data due out yet this year. And as we expected, ROSG’s 11% rally on Thursday dribbled away by Friday’s close.
  • Our latest research report on Keryx BioPharmaceuticals (KERX) went out to subscribers this week. Interest in KERX will begin to build later this quarter as the company and its Japanese partner will be releasing Phase III data throughout. This one is also worth the read this weekend, as we think the Phase III data is low-hanging fruit, and the stock could double if trials succeed.
  • Lexicon reported data from a Phase II and initiated a Phase III trial on Friday for LX1032, a treatment for Carcinoid Syndrome, but analysts are placing emphasis on LX4211, the company’s novel SGLT-1/SGLT-2 inhibitor. Excitement may begin to build in the stock in the fourth quarter as the two late-stage products continue in development.