Spring Bank (SBPH) has been a frustrating position for us because the thesis has remained the same, yet the stock has traded down to $3, with a $15M enterprise value. The market has completely written the name off. With Gilead’s combination data out by year end, we will have a clear picture of where SBPH stands.
Gilead Combination Data By Year End
We anticipated data from the GILD+SBPH combination study to be presented at AASLD meeting in November 2019, but there has been no mention in the released abstracts. SBPH CEO Marty Driscoll confirmed that combination data on the 50mg cohort will be presented by year end. The higher cohorts (200 and 400mg) will have data by Q2 2020.
The study tests co-administration of inarigivir + Vemlidy for 12 weeks and then Vemlidy monotherapy for 36 weeks (below).
This study will show the % of Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) responders as a primary endpoint. Remember, HBsAg is a good marker for showing functional cure. As a monotherapy, inarigivir demonstrated that 26% of patients met the HBsAG response (>0.5log10 reduction) at week 12 or 24.
In this combination study, we’re looking for a 30%+ response rate at 12 weeks. If the data can beat our benchmark, then GILD+SBPH combination make a great case for being clinically superior to existing therapies.
Bottom Line: The current standard of care (NUC+interferon) have shown ~20% responders with 0.5log reduction at 12 weeks, but with lots of side effects. To be clinically superior, we think Gilead + Spring Bank have to show 30%+ response and clean safety.
PropThink contributors are LONG SBPH
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