Following the release of minutes from the Fed’s July Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, U.S. markets opened lower and continued lower in early trading Thursday. Truly, this isn’t a real departure from the norm in 2015; the S&P has traded within this same range for months.
This is little more than the introduction of more uncertainty. The working assumption among economists and investors all summer was that the Fed would raise rates with their September FOMC meeting (Sept. 16-17). Commentary from Fed members in the July minutes, released yesterday, suggest that may not be the case, concluding that “although it had seen further progress [labor market and housing], the economic conditions warranting an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate [namely, inflation at 2% target] had not yet been met. Members generally agreed that additional information on the outlook would be necessary before deciding to implement an increase in the target range.” Merrill Lynch says the market is now pricing in a 33% chance that the Fed will raise rates next month, down from 50% prior. As we’ve written before, if the September deadline passes with no interest rate increase, December is the likely venue considering that the FOMC does not hold a press conference in conjunction with its October meeting.
We’re also in the middle of the summer doldrums – the Street tends to disappear to the beaches for the month of August.
The last few weeks haven’t been easy for long-centric biotech investors. Since tapping $400 in early July, iShares’ NASDAQ Biotech Index Fund (IBB) has receded by about 10%, to $360. 
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