A Recap of PropThink’s Top Stories this Week


  • Amarin plans to “go it alone” with its Vascepa launch. Without a large pharma partnership or, better yet, an acquirer, we don’t expect investors to start entering the stock again until the $7-$8 range.



  • ACRX’s weakness following a financing makes for a trade opportunity ahead of multiple Phase III data releases in early 2013. And as we suspected, the company priced its offering competitively, and shares climbed 6% on Friday in relief.



  • CADX outlined growth prospects for its lead product Ofirmev on Thursday, and the stock climbed 3% into the end of the week. Ofirmev sales could dwarf current levels as market penetration improves and doctors increase per patient vial usage.



  • Investors enjoyed an accelerated dividend from Questcor Pharmaceuticals, which we think highlights Acthar’s continued growth trend and confidence from management. Then on Thursday, the stock sank briefly on a bearish research report, but bounced back in the same trading session, suggesting that the market puts little faith in the bear thesis.



  • With its lucrative approach to treating rare diseases and a recent dip in stock price, Alexion Pharmaceuticals has long-term potential in a landscape free of competition.



  • If you haven’t been following the “Soap Opera” story of Complete Genomics, BGI Shenzhen, and Illumina, Ivan Deryugin offers a summary of the latest events. GNOM, with numerous potential bidders, has very limited downside and opportunity for 5% gains, or more under the right circumstances.



  • Shares of Chelsea Therapeutics cratered on Wednesday, despite evidence that Northera works. The stock is still alive, however, and the company has a number of options moving forward; here are a few scenarios.



  • Vertex is no longer the HCV champion that it once (briefly) was, and long-term growth is pinned to the success of its Cystic Fibrosis franchise. As we opined Monday, it seems the stock hasn’t quite found its bottom yet.



  • With its investor/analyst day coming up on the 11th, TEVA climbed steadily all week. The company  offered lower-than-estimated 2013 revenue guidance in advance of the event, we believe in order to focus discussions on its fundamental restructuring.



  • Our models show that shares of Alexza, following a considerable rally over the last month, are substantially overvalued. A number of factors contribute to an overestimated market opportunity for Adasuve, namely a restrictive REMS.



  • Investors took confidence in a new patent for SQNM’s fetal diagnostics on Friday, rallying shares 5%. And, PATH gained 13% after our Nov. 28 article suggested the potential for a run, but momentum ran out and shares traded back down this week. Zecuity’s FDA decision is still a month off, so swings are likely for PATH in the interim.


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